Think Twice Before You Roll the Dice on Ocugen Stock

As I expected, traders have kept selling Ocugen (NASDAQ:OCGN) stock in the wake of the recent news about the company. The biotech firm — which is trying to bring  Covaxin, a Covid-19 vaccine, to the U.S. and Canada — surged a few weeks back. Last month,  traders bid up OCGN stock in anticipation of an expected emergency use listing {EUL} for Covaxin from the World Health Organization (WHO).

OCGN stock: hands of medical professional holding a syringe, symbolizing vaccine

Source: shutterstock.com/PhotobyTawat

As a result, the shares went from $9 to as much as $17.65 per share. But after the rumors became fact, speculators stampeded out of the shares. After quickly tumbling back to high-single digits, the stock has continued to fall. Today it’s changing hands for just over $7 per share.

I remain very bearish on the shares’ prospects. That’s mostly because the chances of Ocugen making a great deal of revenue  from Covaxin are low. As the months progress, it will likely become undeniably clear that the company won’t sell too many doses of Covaxin in the U.S. or Canada. As a result, I expect the share price to eventually fall to the low-single digits.

I will concede that this meme stock could still spike tremendously in the future. Indeed, it could undergo one last rally. Even so, avoiding the shares has been and still is the best move.

Why Traders Are Still Souring on OCGN Stock

Some traders  were able to lock in fast profits from Ocugen’s shares last month. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case for traders who took bullish positions in the name  over the last several weeks. After paying way too much for the shares in the wake of WHO’s EUL of Covaxin, many such traders found themselves  “holding the bag.”

Moving on after taking some lumps, the crowd is abandoning Ocugen. That’s the primary reason for the continued slide of OCGN stock. But other factors may be playing a role in its tumble as well. For example, the shares may have been hurt by a court’s decision to suspend enforcement of the Biden administration’s  vaccine mandate.

But I doubt whether this news is positive or negative for Ocugen, since Covaxin is still far from being approved by the FDA. By the time that the shot does get approved, the potential market for it will likely have dried up. But some may see the mandate as positive for Covaxin.

How the Shares Could Spike Once More

Although traders are starting to become less bullish on OCGN stock, I wouldn’t rule out another rally by the name. Of course, if Covaxin is approved by the  FDA, OCGN stock could still soar. And Covaxin could still theoretically be used as a booster.

If Canada gives Covaxin the green light, another rally could also be fueled.  Canada is expected to soon let foreigners who have received Covaxin  enter  the country, potentially indicating that the nation will approve the vaccine.

And  earlier this month, Ocugen announced that it was going to ask the FDA to allow  Covaxin to be given to children. As another InvestorPlace contributor, Louis Navellier, recently argued, such an approval would give Ocugen a tremendous potential market. Indeed, only one other vaccine candidate has so far been approved for use in children.

You may want to keep these possibilities in mind, in case you’re thinking of shorting OCGN stock. That said, buying the shares based on these potential factors may not be worthwhile either.

The Latest Verdict on Ocugen Stock

Even as traders have bailed on Ocugen, it could still rally one more time. As a result, it may be a tough name to short. But I also wouldn’t buy the shares  at today’s prices.

So the verdict on OCGN stock remains the same: stay away from it.

On the date of publication, Thomas Niel did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

Thomas Niel, a contributor for InvestorPlace.com, has been writing single-stock analysis for web-based publications since 2016.

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